Crop report: Corn outlook improves despite heat, drought

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WASHINGTON - Near-record heat and worsening drought have failed to dampen production of the nation's corn crop, the Agriculture Department reported Friday.

The corn forecast improved in the monthly crop report, which said farmers will produce 10.98 billion bushels, up 236 million from last month's projections. Last year's production was 1 percent higher at 11.11 billion bushels.

The report defied the predictions of many analysts who expected drought to result in lower national numbers. The reason is that yields appear to be better, said Keith Collins, the department's chief economist.

"Parts of the country where weather has been very good are seeing big increases in yields over last year - corn in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio as an example," Collins said.

"Whereas in the western Corn Belt states - Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota - we're seeing drops year over year," Collins said in a statement.

Corn yields should average 152.2 bushels an acre, up 4.3 bushels from last year. If realized, this year's yields would be the third-best on record, analysts said.

Soybeans are a different story. Yields are expected to drop from last year's record highs, and high temperatures and drought have worsened the outlook in the western Corn Belt as well as the Great Plains and Gulf Coast.

Yields are forecast at 39.6 bushels an acre on average, down 3.7 bushels from 2005.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 5 percent from last year's 3.1 billion bushel crop.

North Dakota's corn crop is estimated at 154 million bushels, down slightly from last year, despite a record 1.5 million acres for harvest. Friday's report said the state's average yield dropped to 102 bushels per acre, down from 129 bushels last year.

The state's soybean production is forecast at 100 million bushels, down 7 percent from last year, with the average yield of 27 bushels per acre, down 10 bushels from 2005.

North Dakota's spring wheat production estimate was unchanged from last month - at 204 million bushels, 9 percent below last year. The durum forecast dropped 7 percent from July, to an estimated 31.3 million bushels. Durum is a wheat variety used in pasta.

This year's alfalfa hay production in the state is forecast at 1.92 million tons, a 42 percent drop from last year. Farmers are expected to harvest 1.5 million tons of other hay, down 36 percent from last year.

The state's barley forecast dropped to 43.7 million bushels, down 24 percent from last year. USDA said it would be the lowest since 1952.

North Dakota's oats production is estimated at 8.5 million bushels, down 40 percent from last year. Dry edible bean production is projected to be down 27 percent from 2005, to 6.3 million hundredweight.

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