OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - A survey of business executives in nine Midwestern and Plains states suggests their state economies are humming right along despite wholesale inflationary pressures.
The report released Thursday said the Mid-American Business Conditions Index rose in April to 55.5 from 54.3 in March.
Any score greater than 50 indicates growth. The index ranges between zero and 100.
Thursday's report said North Dakota's index dropped for the first time since January but still was at a regional high of 64.6, down from March's robust 75.7.
"Contrary to the region and the nation, North Dakota has not experienced a downturn in economic activity," said Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss, who oversees the report. He expects companies with ties to exports, agriculture and energy to help push down the unemployment rate two-tenths of a point by the end of the summer.
In North Dakota, components of the overall index were new orders and production at 66.7, delivery lead time at 41.7, employment at 83.3 and inventories at 50.0.
Goss said the Midwestern region is "clearly outperforming the rest of the nation."
"Very strong farm income and biofuels production continue to push the regional economy higher," he said. "Furthermore, the downturn in housing is having less of an impact for most of the nine-state region than for the rest of the nation."
The states are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
Despite the relatively good news in the region, the survey respondents' outlook for the next six months remained collectively gloomy: The survey's confidence index slumped in April to 29.4 - also a record low since the survey began in 1994 - from a dour 38.0 in March.
"Despite an improving regional economy, supply managers' outlook has been undermined by the national downturn in housing, elevated inflationary pressures, and the subprime mortgage crisis," Goss said. "For this part of the nation, the prime negative driver is record high oil prices."
His gauge for wholesale inflation hit a survey record last month: 93.1, compared with 90.3 in March and 88.8 in February.
Goss noted that the Federal Reserve cut short-term rates a quarter point Wednesday.
"In my judgment, current inflationary pressures in the pipeline will force the Fed to forgo any more rate cuts for 2008," Goss said. "Despite a very weak national economy, inflation is the most ominous problem facing the Fed."
Contrary to most components in the April survey, Goss said, the monthly employment index dipped below growth neutral to 49.0, compared with 52.4 in March and 48.9 in February.
"April's job weakness was in value-added services," Goss said. "Expansions in exports pushed manufacturing job growth into a healthy zone for the month.
"The cheap dollar, which is making U.S. goods less expensive among our trading partners, pushed the new export orders index to a healthy 56.6, down slightly from March's 57.5," he said.
"Though the weak dollar has increased the price of imported goods such as oil, it has failed to restrain imports to any great degree, with an import reading of 55.3, down slightly from 57.9 in March but up from February's 52.1."
Other components of April's overall index were:
* New orders at 55.0, down from March's 55.8;
* Production at 55.0, down from 57.7 in March;
* Inventories at 56.4, up from 56.3 last month;
* Delivery lead time at 59.2, up dramatically from 46.7 in March.
Posted in State-and-regional on Thursday, May 1, 2008 7:00 pm Updated: 2:29 pm.
© Copyright 2009, BismarckTribune.com, 707 E. Front Ave Bismarck, ND | Terms of Service and Privacy Policy