Efforts to increase North Dakota's nurse training are not enough to replace nurses who are expected to retire in the next few years, an analyst says. Patricia Moulton, an assistant professor at the University of North Dakota's Center for Rural Health, said North Dakota's average wage for nurses fell last year for both registered nurses and licensed practical nurses.

For registered nurses, vacancy rates for job openings statewide was 11 percent last year, while openings for licensed practical nurses was steady at 5 percent, Moulton said. In both categories, about one in five nurses changed jobs last year, she said.

The Center for Rural Health has done annual surveys of North Dakota's nursing needs since 2002. Moulton presented its 2005 findings on Thursday to the Legislature's interim Budget Committee on Health Care, which monitors health care trends.

Shelly Peterson, president of the North Dakota Long Term Care Association, and Arnold "Chip" Thomas, president of the North Dakota Healthcare Association, said the findings were not surprising. The Long Term Care Association represents nursing homes, while the Healthcare Association represents hospitals.

North Dakota has 11,833 registered nurses and licensed practical nurses, the study said. Moulton said a third of them are expected to retire within nine years. North Dakota's nurse training programs so far cannot keep pace, because roughly half the graduates leave the state, and it is harder to recruit nurses for teaching jobs, she said.

"We're going to lose a substantial number of nurses and nursing faculty due to retirement within the next few years, and this will not be alleviated solely by increasing the number of students in our nursing education programs," she said.

The study reported that the average wage of North Dakota registered nurses in 2005 was $19 hourly, a decrease from the previous year's reported average of $20.34. For LPNs, the average was just under $14 hourly in 2005, compared to $14.34 in 2004, it said.

In 2004, the national average hourly wage for registered nurses was $26.87. For LPNs, it was $16.87, the study said.

Thomas said there was "still work to do" to improve nursing pay, but he added that nurses entering the work force now often have other demands. Some are unwilling to work in rural areas, or they insist on certain scheduling arrangements, he said.

"The younger people coming out today have an expectation of a life not defined exclusively by work," Thomas said. "We're just having to adjust, and we have a lot more adjusting to do … The shortage has a lot of different dynamics."