ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) - Contrary to the common chatter at cafes across rural Minnesota, a new University of Minnesota study finds that the state's farmland prices rose a modest 5.8 percent last year.

"Those really high-priced sales we hear about in the coffee shops are real, but they're not typical," said economist Steve Taff, author of Tuesday's report.

Taff said he's bracing for skeptics wondering, "Why we aren't seeing that big jump that everybody knows is out there."

Other recent studies have shown higher rises in Minnesota farmland prices, but Taff's data comes from records on every sale, statewide, through September.

Because the data only goes through September and the grain markets really caught fire over the winter, maybe "the zoom is coming." Taff said. "But people said the same thing last year."

A report by St. Paul-based AgriBank found that from mid-2006 to mid-2007, central Minnesota farmland values rose 10 percent, and went up 14 percent in southern Minnesota. When an updated report comes out this summer, "our guys at the banks are expecting it will be that much or more," spokesman Dave Ladd said.

A survey of ag bankers by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank found Minnesota farmland values soared 24 percent last year. But Toby Madden, regional economist for the Minneapolis Fed, gave credence to Taff's research.

"His is more accurate in that he takes the actual sales records," Madden said.

Rural Minnesota's health and wealth are tightly linked to land values. They're a closely watched indicator of vitality, tax base, profitability, net worth and desirability.

Rising land values also are pushing up farm rental rates, and those higher costs for producers ripple through the food chain.

Farmers aren't the only ones who buy farmland. Retirees, hunters, investors, developers and nostalgic urbanites do, too. But last year, the big change was crop prices, which affected farmer-buyers the most. That led to some good gossip, but it doesn't reflect the statewide reality, Taff said.