OMAHA, Neb. - The region's business managers are worried about their profits because of rising oil prices and interest rates, according to a monthly survey released Monday.

Confidence among the region's business leaders and supply managers dropped to 59.4 in April, down from 64.5 the previous month, making it the lowest level since 2002, said Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss, who conducts the Mid-America Business Conditions Survey in a nine-state region.

The confidence index predicts growth in the next six to nine months.

Goss surveys business leaders and manufacturers in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

North Dakota's overall index dropped to 66.7 from 71.5 in March. But North Dakota is the only state in the nine-state region to gain manufacturing jobs over the past five years - with an increase of 1,600, or 7 percent - and that should continue, Goss said.

"Our survey and economic model forecast that North Dakota will add approximately 1,200 manufacturing jobs in 2005," Goss said.

The overall index for the region hit its lowest point since December 2003, netting a rating of 58 in April, down from 61.3 in March.

It marked the second straight month for a decline, although the economic indicator was above 50, meaning growth will continue but it will be at a slower rate in the next three to six months, Goss said.

Goss said he expected the Federal Reserve to raise the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent at its meeting Tuesday. But he predicted there would be no more hikes after the Federal Reserve meets in June.

"Given our regional indicators and national indicators pointing to a slowdown in economic growth, I expect the Fed to become less aggressive with interest rate hikes in the months ahead," Goss said.

Moderating prices for steel and oil brought the prices-paid index down to its lowest level since December 2003, at 75.4. But even at that level - down from March's 79.6 - the wholesale inflation gauge is considered high, he said.

As a weaker U.S. dollar pushed the price of imported goods higher and exported goods lower, the regional import index stood at a strong 59.3, an increase from 58.1 in March. But the new export index increased only slightly to 53.6 from 53 in March, still down from 55.3 in February.

"High prices for imported goods including oil and weakness among U.S. trading partners account for this negative trend and again signals little if any decline in record trade deficits in the near term," Goss said.

The regional employment index dipped to 56.1 from 62.4 in March, Goss said. But that drop was largely from nondurable manufacturing, he said, because durable goods manufacturers reported strong new hiring, making their employment index 68.5. New orders and production were strong at 59.7 and 60.7 respectively, although they did drop from March's readings of 66.7 and 64.2.

The nine-state region has lost 13.6 percent of its manufacturing jobs - or 246,000 jobs - in the past five years while that type of loss nationally was at 17.5 percent, or 3 million jobs. But forecasts predict the region will add more than 28,000 jobs this year, he said.

April's strength in new orders came primarily from heavy or durable goods manufacturers. But food processors documented somewhat weaker hiring and new orders in comparison to March and February, Goss said.