STURGIS, S.D. (AP) - This year's Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may be smaller than last year, based on the observations of those who keep track of it and other indicators.

Motel reservations for rally week in the Rapid City area are the lowest they've been in years, said Nancy Brady, executive secretary of the Rapid City Hospitality Association.

"I've got an exceptionally large number of rooms available during the rally," Brady said. "I've even got some people with homes and cabins calling in."

Brady said bikers are resisting the higher prices most motel operators charge and additional requirements such as minimum stays and nonrefundable prepayments.

"Hardly anybody except a vendor could commit to that," she said.

Susan Johnson, executive director of Black Hills Central Reservations, is seeing similar trends.

Johnson thinks part of the decline is due to competition from other motorcycle rallies and the aging baby boomer bubble.

"Last year was significantly off," said Johnson, a former secretary of the South Dakota Office of Tourism. "This year will be more like last year."

However, two longtime rally campgrounds and concert venues - The Buffalo Chip and Glencoe CampResort - are reporting higher numbers.

The rally peaked in 2000, drawing about 630,000 bikers, according to a rough estimate based on highway traffic counters and other observations.

The numbers dropped to just over 500,000 for the 2003-05 rallies, then down to an estimated 450,000 bikers last year.

The number of vendors in Sturgis registered as of Thursday morning was also running slightly behind last year, according to Ann Bertolotto, deputy city finance officer.

Pepper Massey, the rally's interim director, estimates that between 350,000 and 400,000 people will likely head to Sturgis for this year's event.

She said rally attendance is affected by other factors in the country, including worries about the economy, the price of fuel and the war.

The heavy motorcycle market also is leveling off after a boom over the past 10 or 15 years, she said.

"There is a bit of a slowdown in the industry, and that impacts what happens here also," Massey said.

The annual Sturgis event officially begins Monday.