SIOUX FALLS, S.D. - While it's miles and months away, the mountain snowmelt is a bright piece in this year's jigsaw puzzle of runoff into the Missouri River reservoirs.

But promising as the mountain moisture is, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says it will take more runoff from the plains to prevent a ninth straight year of below-normal flows into the upper basin system.

A Feb. 1 report from the corps put the moisture in the mountains at 98 to 104 percent of normal. During an eight-year stretch of below-normal runoff, mountain snowmelt has been a consistent disappointment.

"In the mountains this is really good news," said Larry Cieslik, chief of the water management office at the corps' office in Omaha, Neb.

"The only problem is that the plains' snowpack is pretty light, and after eight years of drought our soil conditions are very dry, so we're continuing to forecast below-normal runoff, even with the encouraging mountain snowpack."

Not since 1999 has annual runoff exceeded the average of 24.7 million acre-feet. It's averaged 84 percent of normal the past eight years. Runoff this year is forecast at 78 percent of normal.

Typically, 70 percent of the annual mountain snowfall has occurred by mid-February.

"So there's 30 percent more to go there. Or, the other thing that could happen is, you cannot get any more snow for the rest of the year, and then 70 percent wouldn't be too good," Cieslik said.

The dry soil means moisture from snow or rain could soak in rather than run off this spring. The timing and speed of the melt in the mountains and on the plains also is a factor. More water gets into streams and tributaries if the melt is fast and comes before the ground thaws.

The Drought Monitor shows large parts of Montana and the Dakotas in moderate to severe drought, and a La Nina weather pattern this winter has pushed many of the big storms farther south, said Dennis Todey, state climatologist.

La Nina is expected to persist at least through the spring.

"The lower part of the Missouri, like southeast South Dakota and farther south, probably will be a little drier this spring, but areas from the Black Hills and then going northward have a little better chance of being wetter than average this spring," Todey said.

The corps has a conservative management plan for the reservoirs this summer. Releases will be kept to the minimum to meet downstream needs, and the navigation season will be shortened by 30 to 61 days, depending on the water conditions on July 1, when the mountain runoff is pretty well complete. The navigation season was shortened by 35 days last year.

Electrical production is forecast to be 61 percent of normal this year because less water is flowing through the turbines. Hydropower generation in 2007 was a record low 4.9 billion kilowatt hours. Normal is 10 billion kilowatt hours.

The Western Area Power Administration, an agency within the U.S. Department of Energy, sells the power to cities, rural electric cooperatives, American Indian tribes, and other nonprofit providers. When it can't fulfill its contracts with electricity from the Missouri River dams, it has to buy power elsewhere.

"Wherever we can find it," said Randy Wilkerson, a WAPA spokesman in Colorado.

Going elsewhere costs money. WAPA raised rates by 11.9 percent in 2006 and 5.8 percent in 2007 to cover those costs. Another 25 percent increase that's good to December 2010 was implemented this month, Wilkerson said.

"Because so much has been drought-based over time, the way we develop that rate and display it we've added a component called a drought adder where we try and show folks how much of that rate is the cost of producing the power and operations and maintenance, and how much is due to the drought," he said.

Runoff into the system last year was 85 percent of normal, yet many of the reservoirs gained water because of record low releases that were possible because heavy rain fed the system below the reservoirs.

The three upper reservoirs are still well below normal elevation. The corps' February-ending forecast puts Lake Oahe at 16.1 feet below normal elevation, Lake Sakakawea in North Dakota 23.5 feet below, and Fort Peck in Montana 28.7 feet below.

The decade of low water has forced the state to extend some boat ramps on Oahe to reach the water; others have been abandoned because the water is simply too far away.

The rising water last year brought ramps back into operation on Oahe.

"We probably had the most ramps in service that we've had in at least the last five years last summer," said Doug Hofer, parks director in the state Department of Game, Fish and Parks.

"Oahe is about 9 feet higher than we were at this time a year ago, so from that perspective we're in better shape than we would have been a year ago. Runoff projections are still suggesting less than normal runoff, but it's still early," Hofer said.

"We've still get a lot of snowpack, and spring rains that really made a difference last year are still all out in front of us."