FARGO (AP) - A new poll shows that a race pitting Gov. John Hoeven as the challenger for Sen. Kent Conrad's seat would be a close battle.
Conrad's office called the poll "flawed," while Hoeven declined comment. The matchup is hypothetical. Hoeven has not declared himself a candidate for Conrad's seat in 2006.
The poll conducted for The Forum by PMR Inc. of Davenport, Iowa, showed Hoeven leading Conrad 35 percent to 27 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
"Your margin of error puts them at almost a dead heat," said Patricia Duffy, president of PMR.
The telephone survey, conducted from Aug. 26 to Sept. 3, asked 605 North Dakota residents if they would vote for Hoeven, Conrad or someone else. It found 27 percent were undecided, 7 percent said they would vote for someone else, and 2 percent would not vote.
"When it's that far out, the 27 percent that's undecided is not unusual at all," Duffy said.
Hoeven is widely viewed as the Republican officeholder who has the best chance of unseating Conrad, a Democrat who sits on the Senate's finance and budget committees and consistently is shown with high voter approval ratings.
Philip Baumann, a political scientist and polling analyst at Minnesota State University Moorhead, cautions that the poll's findings might be premature.
"There's no campaign, there's no issues being discussed or debated," he said. "People aren't really thinking about the election yet."
The poll does confirm that Hoeven is popular with voters, Baumann said. However, he said Conrad is a more experienced politician, and that would help him in a campaign.
Hoeven, a former banker, was elected in 2000 with 55 percent of the vote and re-elected last year with 71 percent of the vote.
"Hoeven's never had to campaign in a serious race," Baumann said.
Conrad, a former state tax commissioner, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986 when he unseated former Sen. Mark Andrews, R-N.D. He was elected with 62 percent of the vote in 2000 and 58 percent in 1994.
Chris Thorne, a spokesman for Conrad, said the poll is flawed because respondents were not asked about their party affiliation or voting habits, tests to ensure the survey sample matches the electorate.
"This poll done by this marketing firm doesn't track with anything else that we've seen that is independent and scientific," Thorne said.
Hoeven declined comment on the poll results.
"He's focused on the job he's doing, and he's not going to speculate on the future," spokesman Don Larson said.
Posted in State-and-regional on Sunday, September 11, 2005 7:00 pm Updated: 6:40 pm.
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