WASHINGTON - If North Dakota Democrats didn't already know that Barack Obama was seriously competing to win the state in the presidential race, they figured it out when they got to their assigned seats at the Democratic National Convention in Denver last month.
There was North Dakota's small delegation, with some of the best seats in the house. Delegates were seated just behind the perpetual battleground state of Florida, just in front of Sen. Hillary Clinton's state of New York.
"It was great fun looking back and waving at my New York colleagues," joked Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., who has been stumping for Obama as he travels around the state.
North Dakotans certainly aren't used to being in the presidential mix.
Previous Democratic campaigns, including Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, mostly ignored the state, writing it off due to its solid history of voting for Republicans in presidential contests. But Obama's staff says North Dakota is one of the 18 battleground states that he is optimistically targeting this year. He is hoping to be the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to win North Dakota.
One of Obama's biggest assets in the state is its all-Democratic congressional delegation.
Sens. Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, along with Pomeroy, are aggressively campaigning for him as they make their usual swings through the state. They are playing up Obama's support for agriculture and noting McCain's traditional opposition to increasing spending on farm programs. They are talking about Obama's support for renewable energy, sugar programs and ethanol.
At least one prominent Republican and McCain supporter says Obama has a chance.
"I think it's in play which makes it very interesting," said House Majority Leader Rick Berg of Fargo. "The Obama campaign understands the mechanics and fundamentals of getting the vote out."
The differences in the two campaigns' efforts in the state are stark. The Obama campaign now has nine offices around the state, and his staff are building on the organization that won him the state's February caucus. He has traveled to the state twice, visiting Grand Forks in April and Fargo in July. The organization far exceeds that of South Dakota, which supported Clinton in its June primary and is not one of the campaign's targeted states.
McCain, who lost to Republican Mitt Romney with only 23 percent of the vote in the state's Republican caucus, hasn't been to North Dakota during this campaign, and he has no offices and no staff in North Dakota. Calls to the campaign are routed to Minnesota, where staff passed on Berg's name as the best McCain contact in the state.
Berg enthusiastically supports McCain, saying his maverick image should play well in North Dakota. But he said the Republican and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, need to increase their campaign presence.
"I don't think McCain has focused on North Dakota yet and we haven't seen that effort," he said. "What McCain needs to do, in my opinion, is that he and Gov. Palin need to come to North Dakota … people need to meet him, they need to see him, and I think people will have confidence in them as leaders because of that."
Gary Emineth, chairman of the state Republican party, said he is confident that his candidate will win. He said the GOP, which is organizing the state for the McCain campaign, will ramp up its efforts "big time" in the next couple of months, reaching out to small towns across the state and making sure that people understand that McCain's policies and values line up with North Dakota voters.
"I think we're going to see a solid win for McCain whether he comes to the state or not," Emineth said.
Emineth said military families in North Dakota, which has two Air Force bases, will identify with McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war. He said Republicans in the state also will identify with Palin, a conservative former mayor of a small town who has been a supporter of hunters and anglers.
"We are not a one-issue state, and I think McCain will overcome the negatives he would have on the side of agriculture," Emineth said.
Academics in the state also appear uncertain if Obama can pull it off.
Dana Michael Harsell, an assistant professor of political science and public administration at the University of North Dakota, said it's possible, but he's not convinced.
"My gut feeling tells me that he probably won't take the state, but I think he's probably going to come as close as any Democrat in the state has come," Harsell said.
Mark Jendrysik, also a political science professor at UND, agreed.
"I think there's too many built-in factors that make it extremely unlikely," he said. "You have a very old state that is conservative and has voted Republican as long as anyone can remember on the presidential level. It's going to be hard for anyone to overcome that."
Even if Obama can't win, most agree that he may be able to at least force McCain to spend a bit of money in a state that Republicans have taken for granted for decades.
"Democrats have made a mistake of writing off North Dakota in the past, and Sen. Obama isn't making that mistake," said Jan Messerschmidt, spokesman for Obama's campaign in the state.
Dorgan said Democrats have learned from past elections.
"We know how to lose," he said, "And that's when you decide not to compete before the campaign starts. I think it will be a close race in North Dakota, but the only way you have a chance to win here is to compete aggressively."
Posted in State-and-regional on Sunday, September 7, 2008 7:00 pm Updated: 2:20 pm.
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