North Dakotans were pretty much indignant in 1987 when the Rutgers University researchers Frank and Deborah Popper identified the depopulating of the Great Plains, making room for what they dubbed the Buffalo Commons. At that point, we did not really understand the extent to which our rural population in western North Dakota was shrinking, but it didn't take long for the people of the state to get it. In the years since, small communities, the state Legislature and elected and appointed officials have worked hard to stop the state's population slide.
The basic premise has been that small, rural communities are too precious to give up, that they offer something inherently important to the values of the state and the formation of the North Dakota character.
Although the Poppers' initial reception west of the Missouri River in North Dakota was at best prickly - some strong language was used and voices were raised - it didn't take long before the couple became honorary citizens, once it was understood that this Buffalo Commons idea wasn't academic foolishness but a real understanding of the demographics of the short-grass prairie. The numbers were not personal, but the result was.
Now, more than 20 years after the Poppers postulated our population loss, the Census Bureau, looking back 50 years, has concluded that although the state's population has bumped up slightly in recent years, the Poppers were right. Twenty of 25 North Dakota counties deemed a part of the Great Plains have lost population since 1950.
The Poppers may feel vindicated. But other than that the Census Bureau hasn't told us anything we did not already know. The Census Bureau has come late to the party and hasn't brought a gift.
The Buffalo Commons of 1989 - a few larger cities and towns surrounded by great grassy pastures for free-roaming bison - has not come to pass. As the rural Great Plains population continued to decline, the world changed in other ways. In western North Dakota, oil surfaced as a new economic driver along with wind power. The unleashing power of information has remade the world flat. The agriculture industry in North Dakota competes in global markets. There are more bison on the range, but the price of beef on the hoof has been good. Wheat set records for price last year.
While the Great Plains continues to face demanding challenges, western North Dakota has not become the Poppers' Buffalo Commons. Nor will it.
Posted in Editorial on Monday, August 3, 2009 12:00 am Updated: 7:37 pm.
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