Despite a losing vote on the Senate floor last Friday and national media reports that the farm bill is dead until after the 2008 elections, Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., remains confident that a farm bill will be passed this year.

"It's not dead," he said emphatically while traveling the state this week. Conrad, who's deeply involved in the process as chairman of the budget committee, alluded to progress in behind the scenes' deals,a but said he couldn't elaborate due to their ongoing nature.

Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., who helped shepherd the House version to successful passage in July, is less optimistic.

"The prospects of getting it resolved this calendar year are grim," Pomeroy said Monday.

Their comments come on the heels of what was arguably the biggest setback for the farm bill, a twice-per-decade piece of legislation that sets policy on everything from crop support prices to food stamps, conservation and biofuels development.

On Friday, a 52-44 vote in the Senate failed to reach the 60 votes needed to shut off debate and take a vote on the bill.

After passing the House this summer and making its way out of the Senate Agriculture Committee earlier this fall, the bill looked to be in good shape. North Dakota's Democratic delegation quickly praised it as a milestone that would give better crop support prices to growers of wheat, barley and other Plains crops along with a permanent disaster aid provision that would automatically provide funding in the case of a severe drought or other disaster.

But the bill hit a roadblock over a variety of amendments. It was also hurt by intense criticism and a veto threat from the Bush administration.

Pomeroy said he hopes Congress can get a bill passed before next year's planting season so farmers know the regulatory landscape they'll be facing when planting their crops.

Conrad said at a press conference Monday, failure to pass a farm bill this year would be a big setback for North Dakota farmers and ranchers.

His main concern is the math.

When projecting spending levels for a proposed farm bill, budget scorers look at the outlays of the current bill over the last five years. If the bill were bumped to 2008, the calculations would include 2007, which has been a very good year for many farmers in the Midwest and Great Plains.

This good year has in turn led to few crop support outlays from the current bill. If 2007 were included in the five-year average, it would "drastically reduce" the amount of money available to build a farm bill, Conrad said.

Dan Wogsland, executive director of the North Dakota Grain Grower's Association, called 2007 an "anomly" that would skew support payments downward.

"We've never seen a time when prices are this high, and we've never seen a time when, all across the state, crops are good," he said.

To be sure, North Dakota has a big stake in whatever is decided. Under the farm bill passed in 2002, the state is the No. 1 per-capita recipient of farm subsidy payments.

A delay in the farm bill also would have another interesting consequence for North Dakota.

Former Gov. Ed Schafer, who was tapped to be agriculture secretary earlier this month by Bush, is awaiting a confirmation hearing. He likely wouldn't have a role in the farm bill if it's finished this year, but definitely would if it were delayed until 2008.

Chuck Connor, Bush's acting agriculture secretary, has been critical of the Senate's approach to the farm bill, calling the $286 billion proposal too expensive.

Schafer has been barred from talking to the press until he's through the confirmation process, but it's unlikely that he'll be able to differ much from the administration's viewpoint as Bush's agriculture secretary.

Friday's Senate vote broke mostly along partisan lines, with all but four Republicans voting against closing off debate.

Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat who chairs the Senate's agriculture committee, has vowed to bring the farm bill up for another vote after senators return from their two-week Thanksgiving vacation.

(Reach reporter Jonathan Rivoli at 223-8482 or jonathan.rivoli@;bismarcktribune.com)