Lake Sakakawea's rainbow smelt spawn is likely to take a hit this spring if the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' forecast for the state's most popular fishery holds up.

The corps is forecasting that the lake will fall 2.4 feet in May, the prime spawning month for smelt, which are the morsel of choice for walleyes and other game fish.

Lake Sakakawea levels were held steady for last year's spawn, said Paul Johnston, a spokesman for the corps in Omaha, Neb.

"We're trying to do it for Oahe and Peck this year, with the idea to do Sakakawea next year," he said. "To do that in Oahe, we may have to take water from Sakakawea."

The corps' forecast calls for Lake Sakakawea to fall from 1,806.9 feet above mean sea level at the end of April to 1,804.5 feet by the end of May.

Smelt prefer to spawn in shallow water, and when lake levels fall during the spawn, deposited eggs are destroyed when receding water leaves them stranded on dry ground. Fisheries biologists prefer rising or steady water levels during the spawn.

"It's very bad," said Greg Power, fisheries management section leader for the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. "There's nothing good about it."

Power characterized last year's spawn as "OK but not great."

The corps blames ongoing drought in the region for falling water levels that are spurring squabbles and lawsuits among states within the Missouri River basin.

Mountain snowpack is less than 70 percent of normal this year, the corps said in its monthly forecast released Thursday.

In the reach from Fort Peck in Montana to Garrison Dam, snowpack is 69 percent of normal, and it's 61 percent of normal above Fort Peck. In non-drought years, the mountains accumulated 80 percent by early March.

Lake Sakakawea fell less than a half foot and ended February at a record low level of 1,808 feet above mean sea level. Corps projections say the fishery will remain near that level through March. However, the corps is projecting the lake will drop to about 1,802 feet by July.

The latest projections on useable boat ramps this spring and summer is that at least 18 ramps should be accessible.

Garrison Dam releases averaged a record-low 13,000 cubic feet per second during February. In March, releases will be maintained at 12,000 cfs as river ice conditions permit, the corps said. The reservoir is 6 feet lower than last year at this time and 27 feet below average.

Lake Sakakawea's elevation stood at 1,808.2 feet Thursday, unchanged from Wednesday.

The corps has scheduled Bismarck as a stop for its series of spring meetings to review the 2005 plan for regulating water management on the river. The meeting will be at 1 p.m. April 12 at the Doublewood Inn.

Other meetings to review the annual operating plan are planned for April 11 in Glasgow, Mont., and April 13 in Pierre, S.D., with other stops in St. Louis, Kansas City, Mo., and Omaha, Neb.

Under the corps' monthly computer simulation studies, the March "basic" runoff forecast is 16.7 million acre feet of water. The March simulations range from a high runoff of 21.8 maf to a low runoff of 12 maf.

Under the lowest runoff simulation, the corps' priority would shift to keeping water supply intakes operational.

The corps is anticipating that the downstream navigation season will be shortened 50 to 61 days. The season will start April 1 at the river's mouth near St. Louis, and the corps expects minimum service levels.

(Reach reporter Richard Hinton at 250-8256 or outdoors@bismarcktribune.net.)