GRAND FORKS - Tension is building as the next round of military base closings threatens an Air Force base here.

Recommendations for closings are due May 16 to a nine-member Base Realignment and Closure - or BRAC - commission. As many as 25 percent of the nation's bases could be closed or restructured. And Defense leaders say the closures, the first since 1995, could save billions.

Criteria for the next round of military base closings could favor the Grand Forks base, said John Marshall, a Grand Forks attorney who heads the local Council on Military Relations, a committee appointed to help keep the base open.

"Things look positive for us," Marshall said. "I have some awful high-ranking people telling me, John, you're fine, but you don't know what the climate is going to be once you get in there because it changes."

Encroachment around bases remains one of the biggest concerns for the Pentagon and is viewed as a sure way to end up on a closure list, said Tara Butler, a senior policy analyst for the National Governors Association in Washington, D.C.

"If your base is one of those military installations that is significantly encroached upon, it could be one of the reasons if not the reason that your base gets closed," Butler said.

Unlike urban bases, the Grand Forks Air Force Base doesn't have encroachment, Marshall said. It also could accommodate future missions, he said.

"We might need a new building, depending on what type of new mission it may be, but we would have no problem taking on new missions," he said. show the bases

Another point in favor of Grand Forks is that the base has demolished or remodeled aging infrastructures, he said.

"If you've got two bases that come up pretty much equal, they may look at some of the lower level criteria, such as economic impact, and that may make the decision for them," she said.

A study by the Grand Forks Air Force Base said it contributes about $350 million in economic activity to the state.

"If you take all the new businesses collectively brought into this state in the last seven years, they don't bring in one half of what the base brings in one year," he said.