Lowering prices will get customers in the stores this holiday season, experts say.

Wait, isn't that always the case?

Apparently, the retail industry is responding to wavering consumer confidence by being more promotion-heavy than normal, a trend that has certainly trickled into North Dakota and down to the Bismarck-Mandan shopping area.

"'Discounts' is going to be the key word," said Mike Rud, head of the North Dakota Retail Association. "Everybody's going to be looking to knock the price off as much stuff as they can."

That's in response to uncertain financial times and low consumer confidence; as Rud says, people want to be more practical with their dollar.

Despite the constant bad news inundating consumers, preliminary reports show that they are going to come out in droves this holiday shopping weekend. And area retailers say their business is far better than anticipated, and certainly better than national reports.

"Through October … we had a huge increase in sales," said Lisa Engelstad, marketing manager at Kirkwood Mall. "Traffic was very strong. Many of our stores were very pleased with sales over last year."

Doug Kautzman, manager of Target, said sales are up over the previous year, but noted a small lag over the last few weeks. He anticipated a strong shopping season, however.

"I think you're going to see a lot of people out this weekend, because I think it's going to be very promotional," he said. "I think it's going to be as good as to be expected.

Early reports from the National Retail Federation say that up to 128 million people plan to hit stores nationwide the weekend after Thanksgiving; about 79 million of those are waiting to see weekend deals before making any purchase decisions. The number is down slightly from 2007 reports, which had 135 million people saying they would shop.

"We're expecting retailers to be extremely promotional over the next couple of weeks," said Ellen Davis, spokeswoman for National Retail Federation. "Retailers know that for consumers, price is paramount this year."

That means bringing the customers into the store while maintaining profitability.

For shopper Judy Allmaras, who was browsing at Gateway Mall on Wednesday, budget is key.

"I probably won't shop as much this year," she said, noting that her husband runs a farm and that the budget is tighter this year. She said she pays close attention to sales before heading to Bismarck to shop.

But many believe that Bismarck is still ahead of the national recession, and North Dakota consumer spending habits may reflect that. Retail sales for the third quarter were up in the state, Rud noted.

"The state numbers are very strong. October came with the financial meltdown, and everybody kind of pulled their horns a little bit," he said.

Derik Johnson, an engineer for Basin Electric, was shopping with his 3-year-old son late Wednesday morning to find a present for his wife; Johnson said the family hasn't adjusted their shopping budget and doesn't feel the impact from the national crisis.

"Luckily, I do have enough time (before retirement) that I don't have to worry about it," he said, referring to concerns about the markets.

But Kim Heilman, playing with her 2-year-old daughter, said their family adjusted their gift-giving habits this year. Instead of purchasing a gift for everyone in their extended family, they decided to draw names and limit the purchases to $30.

These customers are who retailers are hoping to bring back in with their promotions this holiday season, with doorbusters on Black Friday and continued promotions throughout the season.

"It's going to be the year of the practical shopper," Rud said.

(Reach reporter Crystal R. Reid at 250-8261 or at crystal.reid@bismarcktribune.com.)