Hoeven gets high marks, but will he get the votes?

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A recent survey of North Dakotans indicates that while a lot of people say they think Gov. John Hoeven is doing a good job, plenty of them are undecided about who they will support for governor this fall.

A group of 10 newspapers conducted a telephone survey of 600 residents in the Carrington, Crosby, Garrison, Grafton, Kenmare, Lisbon, Napoleon, Rolla, Stanley and Watford City areas in December for the "Prairie Poll." The newspapers have been conducting the surveys since 1967, and the president of one participating newspaper group, BHG Inc.'s Mike Gackle, said that while the poll is unscientific, it historically has been quite accurate.

The survey put Hoeven's approval rating at 61 percent, down from 73 percent at the same time last year. His favorability rating was a bit lower than that of Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., with 62 percent, and Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., who had the highest rating, at 65 percent. Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., who along with Dorgan is up for re-election this year, had the lowest approval rating, at 53 percent. No Republicans have announced their intention to run against Dorgan or Pomeroy.

When the poll was conducted, only one Democrat - former Bismarck senator Joe Satrom - had announced plans to take on Hoeven, and the survey showed people don't know much about Satrom. Eighty-four percent said they knew nothing about him, but 58 percent also said they weren't sure who they would vote for yet, while 38 percent said they'd vote for Hoeven and 4 percent for Satrom.

Satrom wasn't surprised that so few people were familiar with him because he said he's been out of the public eye for more than 10 years and has never run for a statewide office.

"It's not a bothersome statistic to me," he said.

He said he plans to raise as much money as possible, run a "very grassroots campaign," and focus on proposals to create a smarter, leaner, more accountable government.

The number he was more interested in was the 58 percent who are undecided. He said that indicates "at this point that they're anxious to hear from me."

"The numbers reflect what I have felt for the last several years: The people of North Dakota are open to new leadership and a new vision," he said.

The poll was conducted before House Minority Leader Merle Boucher jumped into the governor's race. Boucher said that while Hoeven's 61 percent approval rating is "formidable," the fact that only 38 percent of people were willing to commit to him now indicates that there are "a lot of people looking for an alternative."

"This guy is beatable," Boucher said. "It indicates to me that John Hoeven certainly doesn't have a lock on the 2004 election at this time. Just the power of incumbency should generate 38 percent."

He said the fact that Hoeven's favorability rating dropped 12 percent from 2002 to 2003 indicates the governor is in "a slide" and vulnerable.

But Hoeven's campaign director, Cory Fong, said the poll results - however unscientific - are good news for the governor and line up with past polls.

"About 92 percent of North Dakotans have a favorable view of the governor's policies and agenda," he said, a figure he gets to by including the 31 percent who gave Hoeven a "fair" rating, "and 61 percent think he's doing a good job."

As for the 58 percent undecided number, Fong said "I don't know exactly what to assume or make of that. It's hard to gauge at this point."

Pomeroy's office did not return a call seeking comment.

(Reach Deena Winter at 250-8251 or deena.winter@bismarcktribune.com.)

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