The stock dam on Lynn Deibert's ranch ran dry last year.

This was not, by any means, an isolated occurrence.

There were more standing ovations than there was standing water on many Dakota ranches last summer, as elected officials toured the parched prairie and held rallies in support of drought assistance.

But Deibert's stock dam spoke eloquently about the severity of it all. His 80-year-old aunt, who still lives on the old home place, had never seen the cracked mud on the bottom of that pond. Not in the '30s. Not in the '80s. Not until 2006.

"Forget about any rain. It got to a point where if we saw a single cloud in the sky, that looked pretty good," Deibert, who has ranched in the Herreid, S.D., area for 30 years, said. "It was worse than anything I've ever seen. Coming off this severe drought, if there's something out there that can help you figure out what to do, I'd be excited about that."

There is. Almost.

Deibert and several other ranchers from North Dakota and South Dakota attended a Range Forum in early May, where they were introduced to a new tool that could help mitigate the effects of a drought on their pocketbooks.

The Drought Management Calculator, a project that has spent about three decades on the back burner, will finally be ready to go later this year. The brainchild of a longtime rangeland management specialist from Texas, the calculator is designed to help ranchers survive drought years. It uses a computer program to determine ideal herd sizes and feed amounts, based on weather and livestock data entered by the producer.

The calculator is for use nationwide, but can be connected through the Internet to local weather and market information.

"It's really designed for the rancher to sit at home and run a bunch of different options," Jeff Printz, a rangeland management specialist for the National Resources Conservation Service office in Bismarck, said. "They really wanted to make it rancher-friendly, where the terms on it mean something to the rancher, not the agency designing it. With a minimal amount of entries, the rancher can get something out of it."

The program, which will be available at no cost when it's released in August or September, relies just as much on its users as it does up-to-date data from the Web. It asks ranchers to enter their herd dynamics - information such as quantity, weight and classifications of animals - and accurate precipitation figures.

The Drought Management Calculator compares that data to what is normal for the area to determine carrying capacity, or how many animals a rancher could be expected to handle. In drought years, when forage production isn't where it should be, the calculator will suggest how many of each animal class should be sold, according to the rancher's preference.

Deibert ran a test of the calculator at last month's forum. Based on the rainfall amounts and his herd information, the drought calculator recommended running about half as many cows as normal. That suggestion did bear out in real life: Deibert is down to 110 head this year from 200.

"It's got some merit," Deibert said. "If we'd have had a normal year last year I would have said it doesn't pay to bother with anything. But coming off this severe drought, I'm kind of excited to use it. Once they get it done, we can plug our numbers into the front, get something out of the back and see how close we are."

Copies of the calculator will be available at NRCS offices, and through the Agricultural Research Service.

The drought calculator has been a long time coming. It's the creation of Texas rangeland management specialist Arnold Norman, who's spent three decades with the NRCS.

"This whole thing is based on Arnold's 30 years in the agency," Printz, who brought Norman to last month's forum, said. "In that time he's dealt a lot with drought, and has always had this in the back of his mind. It's just being developed now. He started in January 2006 pulling this model together."

Norman and co-developer Gale Dunn presented their Drought Management Calculator at three meetings last month in Mandan, Medora and Mobridge, S.D.

The program works as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, Printz said. It will be available to ranchers on CD or as a download from the NRCS and ARS Web sites.

"The information comes out on a graph, and lets producers look ahead and see what their forage production is going to be, and whether they can support the number of animals they have now," Printz said. "It allows you to prioritize your herd."

The calculator then goes and looks at the current market price, and shows ranchers how much money they'd make if they sold a certain number of animals that day. If they thought they might like to sell at a later date, the program can look at the futures market.

It also can calculate how much it will cost to feed the current or projected herd size.

After the final report comes out, the calculator allows the user to enter several "what-if" scenarios.

"Arnold said he was looking for spots to test this program, to run it past people and get a feel for how it works," Printz said. "Second, our weather conditions last year were such that it was a good time to try it."

Hopefully, Deibert said, ranchers won't have to use the calculator any time soon. Heavy rainfalls this May have helped green up the countryside. But drought does have a carry-over effect - both in the wallet and in the soil.

"Everything looks good from the road, but you walk in and look down from the top, and the grass is thinner than normal," Deibert said. "The grass was so hurt last year. But now we're optimistic."

(For more stories in the Look of the Land series, and an interactive map, check out http://www.bismarcktribune.com/lookoftheland. Reach reporter Tony Spilde at 250-8260 or tony.spilde@bismarcktribune.com.)