Almost any political observer is likely to come to the same conclusion: Sen. Byron Dorgan's growing re-election war chest, which grew by nearly $1 million in the last three months, wasn't just a matter of fundraising serendipity.

It was a calculation.

In a letter sent to supporters on June 30, the fundraising deadline for the senator's most recent financial disclosure report, Dorgan's message was clear and likely directed at a certain somebody in North Dakota's state Capitol.

"With opponents still undecided, the money we raise now could save us a lot more down the road by discouraging them from getting into the race when our report comes out," Dorgan wrote in the letter.

Dorgan filed his report on Wednesday, which showed he raised $940,000 from April 1 through June 30.

It's a formidable coffer largely funded by out-of-state donors, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. (About half of Dorgan's total fundraising dollars over his career and this cycle have come from political action committees.)

Dorgan won his 2004 race with 68 percent of the vote and is facing the possibility of challenging Gov. John Hoeven, North Dakota's popular Republican governor.

The senator's latest returns also reflect the Democratic Party's urgency to raise money to protect Dorgan's seat in the U.S. Senate, where Democrats technically have 60 cloture-proof votes (assuming both Democratic Sens. Edward Kennedy, who has brain cancer, and Robert Byrd, who has fallen ill at the age of 91, remain in their seats).

Hoeven has said he will decide on a potential Senate bid by Labor Day.

That prompted popular political blogger and polling wunderkind Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com to boost North Dakota's Senate race to No. 17 on his list of potential competitive races.

"To me, this feels mostly like a bluff, designed to force Dorgan's hand on policies like cap-and-trade," Silver wrote of Hoeven's potential bid. "But I'd expect this to ultimately become a single-digit race if Hoeven did decide to enter."

'No' vote

Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., cast a no vote late Thursday against a health care reform bill in the Ways and Means Committee. He was one of three Democrats who voted against the legislation, which passed 23-18.

The U.S. House has three committees working on health care reform. Pomeroy said he wouldn't support the bill because the so-called public option included in the legislation would use current Medicare reimbursement rates, which he said would financially hamper North Dakota health care providers.

The Service Employees International Union released a statement Friday morning condemning Pomeroy's nay vote:

"Rep. Pomeroy has valid concerns about some parts of reform being discussed, but voting against passage of this critical legislation does nothing to address those concerns," the statement read. "Failing to fix health care is not an option, and North Dakota's families need him to stand up and do the right thing."

Pomeroy has said that he likes other aspects of the bill, including a new surtax on the top 1.3 percent of the nation's income earners to help pay for the reform and a mandate on Americans to get - and employers to provide - health insurance.

Group canvassing

Members of Organizing for America, the political offshoot of President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, will begin canvassing in North Dakota this weekend to garner support for health care reform in Congress.

The group is also planning on an Aug. 8 campaign event in Bismarck to push for health care reform.

(Reach reporter Brian Duggan at 223-8482 or brian.duggan@bismarcktribune.com.)