Oct 26, 2008 - 04:05:19 CDT
The last time the Democrats controlled the state Senate in North Dakota Bill Clinton was taking his first oath of office and Barack Obama was just starting his legal career.That was 1993. Fifteen years later, while Obama battles his Republican opponent, John McCain, for the Oval Office, North Dakota politicos are wondering out loud that this might be the year the Democrats take back a chamber in the state Legislature.
Republicans held 32 out of 47 seats in the state Senate in the 2005 session, but Democrats trimmed that lead down to 26 when they gained six seats in the 2006 election. Democrats also gained seven seats in the House in 2006, splitting it 61 to 33 in favor of the GOP.
The question this year is will Democrats make a repeat of 2006?
University of North Dakota political science professor Dana Harsell thinks so. He said the Democrats are mobilized this year - thanks in part to an active grassroots movement for Obama's presidential campaign - and could feasibly take the Senate.
"They're hoping to ride some of that momentum from two years ago," Harsell said.
Rep. Rick Berg, R-Fargo, who is stepping down from his majority leader post next session, said the success the Democrats had in 2006 was a result of many Republicans, upset with Washington, staying home on Election Day.
It's something Democrats are hoping will happen again this year, said Jamie Selzler, executive director of the Democratic-NPL party.
"I think we're going to win the Senate," Selzler said. "The question isn't, are we going to take a majority? It's how large of a majority are we going to have?"
Of the 23 Senate races this year, four are open seats and three of those belonged to Republicans in Districts 36, 38 and 42. One open seat is left by a Democrat, Sen. Joel Heitkamp in District 26.
While Democrats only need three for the majority, Senate Minority Leader Sen. David O'Connell, D-Lansford, said he thinks his party can pick up five. Gary Emineth, chairman of the North Dakota GOP, says not so fast.
"I think that's wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats," said Emineth, noting economic gains thanks to energy development in the state over the past two years plus a Republican governor who is up for re-election and is polling high among voters. "I don't think we're going to lose control of the Senate."
One of the state's most hotly contested Senate races is for the open seat in District 42 in Grand Forks.
The race pits two newcomers to North Dakota politics: Democrat Mac Schneider, cousin to insurance commissioner candidate Jasper Schneider, and Republican Nate Martindale, a 24-year-old recent graduate of the University of North Dakota who served as the school's student president.
Harsell adds that Obama's popularity among many college students could help Democrats in the districts near UND where many students live.
Sen. Nicolas Hacker, the Republican from District 42 who decided not to seek re-election this year, said many of those students come from Republican families. Hacker, who was elected at the age of 22, won his 2004 election by 48 votes.
"It's obvious that (the Democrats) are dumping a lot of money into the district, at the same time it's no different than my race," Hacker said, adding Democrats outspent him two-to-one in his 2004 race.
Selzler doubts Obama's name at the top of the ballot will have an overwhelming affect on other Democrats seeking office. Harsell agrees.
"The one thing you can say about North Dakotans is they're not afraid to split tickets," he said.
But Harsell added that Obama's campaign has been stronger and more organized from the grassroots level in North Dakota than McCain's, which could help Democrats on Election Day.
"Just because (Obama's) paid staffers left doesn't mean there aren't a lot of unpaid volunteers doing footwork here," Harsell said. "You didn't see that same infrastructure put in place here by the McCain campaign."
Berg said Hoeven could have an effect on voters on Nov. 4, too.
"I think Governor Hoeven is going to bring a lot of voters as well from the university districts," he said.
While many political observers agree the House is likely to remain in control of the GOP, there will be some changes next session.
Rep. Al Carlson, R-Fargo, said he will seek to replace Berg as House majority leader. He adds that Republicans are in a good position to keep their majorities.
"Republicans have a great deal of positive things to run on, the sky's not falling in North Dakota," Carlson said. "In the end the Republicans will hold the Senate and the Republicans will hold the majority in the House."
(Reach reporter Brian Duggan at 223-8482 or brian.duggan@;bismarcktribune.com.)
JD wrote on Oct 26, 2008 11:05 PM:
This old Republican wrote on Oct 26, 2008 10:44 PM:
Billy Moore wrote on Oct 26, 2008 8:46 PM:
Why does the News Media not show these articles exposing Obama to be the extreme Socialist he really is?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_JtTfGekhAhY/SQA32CKNgPI/AAAAAAAABx8/3ofJxBZBksQ/s1600-h/np1.JPG
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/10/021724.php?format=print
http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.printable&pageId=78945
Billy Moore
Denver,NC 28037 "
JD wrote on Oct 26, 2008 6:18 PM:
ND Conservative wrote on Oct 26, 2008 5:14 PM:
Barney wrote on Oct 26, 2008 1:11 PM:
Scott from Minot wrote on Oct 26, 2008 12:36 PM:
BJB wrote on Oct 26, 2008 10:40 AM:
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