Jan 07, 2008 - 04:05:11 CST
With a barrel of crude oil reaching $100 and forecasts of gas prices reaching anywhere from $4 to $6 in the next year, some North Dakotans are preparing for the worst while others are taking it in stride."It'll kill us," asserted Chuck Morman, Morton County highway superintendent. "And it's not just the price for fuel for the county vehicles, it affects everything."
Morton's fuel budget for 2007 finished $90,000 in the red, and Morman had the dubious duty of predicting what fuel prices will be in 2008 as he put together his budget for this year back in August of 2007.
In 2006 Morman estimated $275,000 for fuel in 2007, but reality was closer to $380,000. He's guessing $400,000 will be needed in 2008, but in light of recent developments is worried that's not near enough.
"I literally cannot plan for it. If I need an order of fuel tomorrow and I call today at 5 p.m. they (fuel company) will not even give me a price and tell me to call back in the morning," Morman said.
Morman also has experienced trouble getting fuel. One day he called for fuel and was told 6,000 gallons was available and the next he was told there wasn't a single gallon available.
"I read where the Mandan refinery produces more fuel than North Dakota can use and yet we couldn't get any," Morman said. "I know they have contracts they have to fill, but I'm beginning to understand the proposal that there be a state-owned refinery."
Morman also has seen the price of crude oil dramatically impact other areas. Motorgrader tires have gone from $450 a piece to more than $1,100. Asphalt prices continue to skyrocket.
"In order to pay for those things we have to take dollars from other areas. Sometimes we don't even have the money for routine maintenance," Morman said.
Jeff Heintz, Bismarck's service operations director, increased his department's fuel budget for 2008 by 67 percent.
"Last year we went way over what was budgeted. What happens is, there are just some things we don't do. If diesel fuel ends up costing me more, we do less in other areas," Heintz said. "I'm just hoping we don't get the big winter storm, at least not those like back in 1996 or 1997."
This year Bismarck estimated $65,000 in fuel for equipment used for disposal of garbage at the landfill. Next year Heintz is budgeting for $128,000.
In the past, the city would put out a request for fuel and three or four vendors would reply and the city could take the lowest and best bid.
"Now we're at the mercy of the vendors. We don't have the luxury of waiting for several vendors to reply to our request, because if we wait too long there won't be any available," Heintz said.
The prices at the pump brought varied responses from three consumers on Saturday morning.
Bowman's Roger Kubista, who owns a construction company, is resigned to having to pay higher prices, but knows there will have to be some cutbacks in his life.
"I'm getting to the age of retirement and I want to go on vacations and visit my kids out in Seattle. I don't have much of a choice, I have to pay the prices," Kubista said. "I'm a small business owner and we use trucks at the job sites. I just try to be more efficient in their use."
And it's not only the rising prices that have impacted Bowman, according to Kubista, but the availability of fuel.
"Farmers had to leave corn and sunflowers in the fields because there wasn't any fuel to be had. Those crops are still there as far as I know. Now that's affecting our food chain. It's a sad situation," Kubista said.
Jose Salacsar said he won't let the prices bother him.
"In a month or two, I'll be able to stop driving all together. I live close to where I work, so I'll either walk or ride my bike," Salacsar said. "I really don't drive that much now and I really don't care how high the price of gas goes."
Tessa Hoskins, lives and works in Bismarck, but her home and family are in Minneapolis, so she makes a lot of trips back and forth. She's considering buying a motorscooter to get around town.
"What I don't understand is why we have a refinery right here, but our prices for gas are higher than in Minnesota," Hoskins said. "I expect we'll be paying over $4 a gallon before too long."
Bismarck police officer Doug Ketterling said the prices have already forced a change in his lifestyle and as soon as the temperatures warm up, he'll be doing more bike riding.
"I'm not doing as much driving around town, and the driving I do is done more efficiently," Ketterling said.
State tourism director Sara Otte Coleman doesn't expect fuel prices to change her department's strategy for promoting the state.
"We focus regionally, anyway, as you know, we're budget-challenged," Otte Coleman said.
Otte Coleman said vacations are very important to most people, and they'll cut back in other places before cutting their vacation plans.
"They may not travel as far or take as many vacations, but vacations are important to them," Otte Coleman said. "I haven't seen a lot of people change their lifestyles as far as travel patterns. And here in North Dakota, we're experiencing a strong economy, I'm just hopeful it stays that way."
Otte Coleman also has a farm and ranch and her family is definitely feeling the crunch of gas prices.
"We do a lot of driving back and forth between town and the farm, and we drive big vehicles," she said. "We've been asking ourselves if it would make sense to buy another car to take advantage of flex-fuels or other alternatives? But we don't need another vehicle expense. Fuel prices have also caused crop inputs to go way up."
State agricultural commissioner Roger Johnson said it is the lower and middle income folks who are being hit hardest by energy costs. A higher percentage of their disposable income ends up being committed for gas.
"What are their choices? Driving less or trading for a vehicle that gets better gas mileage. People with lower incomes don't have those options," Johnson said.
With his own car, which is a little older, Johnson tries to blend in some E-85 fuel with the regular gas. He suggests that more study be done looking at 20-, 30- and even 40-percent ethanol blends that perhaps can give similar performance to regular gas without ethanol.
"There are blender pumps where folks can pick their blend by just pushing a button. They are available some places in South Dakota, but I don't know of any in North Dakota," Johnson said. "I use a little E-85 in my car, but then it doesn't have a factory warranty anymore."
For ag producers, fuel prices are one thing to deal with, but the price of fuel impacts many areas, including fertilizer, equipment and other inputs.
"The big thing that people don't pay attention to is the cost of fuel to bring all those inputs to the farm and then to transport all the produce from the farm to market," Johnson said. "Oil prices are a big deal for everybody."
(Reach reporter Gordon Weixel at 250-8255 or gordon.weixel@bismarcktribune.com.)

To Rebecca wrote on Jan 14, 2008 12:12 AM:
NoDak John wrote on Jan 13, 2008 10:46 PM:
NoDak John wrote on Jan 13, 2008 10:35 PM:
daffer wrote on Jan 12, 2008 11:03 PM:
Bob wrote on Jan 12, 2008 9:34 AM:
Having money does not give you the right to waster energy. Having said that, everyone has the opportunity to use as much fuel/energy as they can afford. That will not be true if we start having shortages. The new energy bill will force people into smaller more fuel efficient vehicles. The change may not be fast enough to stop increasing prices or potential shortages, however. Other examples of how things will change include: Minnesota is looking at lowering speed limits. California is looking at installing thermostats that let utilities change a building's temperature by remote control during summer power emergencies. We had something similar in MPLS. They could turn our A/C off for 15 minutes every 30 minutes. Worked great, they gave us a credit for just having the device. Expect to see more restrictions as energy/fuel shortages increase. Finally, are your comments that of a thoughtful, rational adult? When faced with an energy crisis should we dig in our heels and do business as usual? In the end we will all sink or swim together. "
Math Boy wrote on Jan 12, 2008 6:39 AM:
to Rebecca too! wrote on Jan 11, 2008 11:51 PM:
I never in my wildest dreams/nightmares would I drive minivan--let alone a Prius!---what does it matter to you anyway, as to what I drive?? I worked for it...I earned it it....I drive it! Gotta problem? "
To Rebecca wrote on Jan 11, 2008 4:22 PM:
Rebecca wrote on Jan 11, 2008 10:28 AM:
NoDak John wrote on Jan 11, 2008 8:11 AM:
To Rebecca: wrote on Jan 11, 2008 8:09 AM:
Paul "
NoDak John wrote on Jan 11, 2008 7:57 AM:
Bob wrote on Jan 10, 2008 8:17 PM:
Bob wrote on Jan 10, 2008 8:03 PM:
Mythbuster wrote on Jan 10, 2008 7:22 PM:
Rebecca wrote on Jan 10, 2008 3:31 PM:
gg wrote on Jan 10, 2008 7:58 AM:
Also, I am in Paul's boat. I have 3 small kids. ALl in car seats. It's rough to find a car that fits us all and if we do find one, chevy impala for instance, they don't get more than 16 in town anyway. We get that with our suv so why would I buy a car? "
zeldazelda wrote on Jan 9, 2008 4:53 PM:
No Common Sense wrote on Jan 9, 2008 2:39 PM:
These are not the answer. JB stated it previously: Go nuclear and transistion to electric/hydro systems. That's the way to go for the long run...... "
Indie wrote on Jan 9, 2008 8:22 AM:
Point to Ponder wrote on Jan 9, 2008 8:14 AM:
another view wrote on Jan 9, 2008 6:40 AM:
JB wrote on Jan 9, 2008 6:18 AM:
i see wrote on Jan 9, 2008 3:13 AM:
Paul wrote on Jan 9, 2008 1:48 AM:
ndguy wrote on Jan 8, 2008 12:52 PM:
No Common Sense wrote on Jan 8, 2008 11:35 AM:
We need to put the pressure on auto makers for the products that we want. Hybrid Vans & SUVs are coming and will be on the market if we demand them.
The technology is there. We just need to use our wallets..... "
Jimbo wrote on Jan 8, 2008 10:27 AM:
Avid Reader wrote on Jan 8, 2008 9:24 AM:
MamaMia wrote on Jan 8, 2008 8:27 AM:
would love 1 wrote on Jan 8, 2008 3:12 AM:
squidward wrote on Jan 7, 2008 10:18 PM:
im biking wrote on Jan 7, 2008 9:29 PM:
JB wrote on Jan 7, 2008 8:45 PM:
safety first wrote on Jan 7, 2008 4:51 PM:
No Conscience! wrote on Jan 7, 2008 3:08 PM:
"
To fuel efficiency and hybrid owner wrote on Jan 7, 2008 12:53 PM:
That Guy wrote on Jan 7, 2008 12:51 PM:
Fuel Efficiency! wrote on Jan 7, 2008 12:00 PM:
"
Hybrid owner wrote on Jan 7, 2008 10:41 AM:
Ralph's Right wrote on Jan 7, 2008 10:04 AM:
JimBo wrote on Jan 7, 2008 9:48 AM:
Prior Roughneck wrote on Jan 7, 2008 7:59 AM:
Ralph wrote on Jan 7, 2008 7:26 AM:
Maybe like the rest of the country the county should cut back on driving. Put the sheriffs dept in hybrids. "
Bob wrote on Jan 7, 2008 6:16 AM:
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