Aug 20, 2006 - 02:10:49 CDT
Bismarck Tribune
By TONY SPILDEBy TONY SPILDE
Maybe next year or the year after or two years after that - whenever the rain comes - Paul Andahl will be able to exhale.
The Burleigh County rancher, like many of his peers in this part of the state, is holding his breath through the extreme drought that has crippled many other farmers and ranchers.
They've had to face baked pastures, shriveled crops and, in Andahl's case, dangerous fires. A cigarette butt flicked out the window of a car started a thousand-acre blaze just north of Bismarck a couple of weeks ago, torching part of the land where Andahl was raised.
Andahl and many other ranchers have had to sell cattle much earlier than normal this year, and on at least one farm in south-central North Dakota a cow has died from the heat.
Droughts are wars of attrition: They will go away and wounds will heal, if you can just survive the waiting.
If.
"It's terrible," Andahl said. "It gives you chills, actually. You could start a fire with a baler or mower or anything at this point."
Andahl, 59, has spent his entire life ranching. He said he's never seen things this dry.
Ditto Marvin Fried, who also operates a large ranch just north of town.
"People are going to lose ground this year," Fried said. "A lot of people have had to sell down (their herds), because they just don't have the pasture."
In the month since the Tribune's "Parched Prairie" series, little has improved. Despite recent rains, drought conditions are worse around Bismarck than they were a month ago.
Also since then, the USDA has come out with crop-production estimates, which - to no one's surprise - show decreases almost across the board from last year.
That's particularly disappointing for many growers coming off record years with high hopes.
Soybean production last year was 107 million bushels, a 31 percent increase from 2004. Farmers planted soybeans on 30 percent more acres this year, but are expected to yield only about 100 million bushels.
"We were anticipating a larger production year this year, but that fell through because of the weather," said Ed Goerger, of the North Dakota Soybean Council. "We have gotten some rain since the (USDA) forecast came out, and soybeans do make their grain in August. (The forecast) could rise, and we're optimistic that it will."
Eric Bartsch, of the North Dakota Dry Pea and Lentil Association, said extreme heat negatively impacted pulse crops during the flowering stage, particularly in the southwest and south-central parts of the state. He said production of dry edible peas this year would be around 25 to 30 bushels an acre, down from an average of 36. In some of the worst areas, the yield would be 10 to 15 bushels an acre, Bartsch said.
Lentil production should be between 1.35 million and 1.5 million hundredweight, less than last year's record of nearly 2 million.
Other production figures (with last year's totals in parentheses):
3 Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures for hay - 1.9 million tons (3.3 million)
3 Barley - 43.7 million bushels (57.2 million)
3 Canola - 1.1 billion pounds (1.46 billion)
3 Corn - 150 million bushels (155 million)
3 Sugar beets - 6 million tons (4.59 million)
3 Wheat - 242 million bushels (304 million)
The 1.9 million tons of hay from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures is the lowest yield in the country. All sources of hay are predicted to yield 1.5 million tons, which - at 1.1 tons an acre - is tied for second-lowest in the nation with Wyoming. South Dakota (.9 tons per acre) has it the worst, according to the USDA.
Fried was able to get only 131 bales made this year on his land, compared to an average of 1,000 to 1,200.
The North Dakota State University Extension Service offers an online feed list (www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/feedlist) where buyers or sellers can place their information. Fried, who's been on the list since July 18, has received only three calls from people with hay for sale. Each was in Minnesota, too far out of range to make it affordable. Fried had enough hay put up from last year and enough pasture land to get him through this year.
Though it may be too late for many crops, late-season rains could still help canola, soybeans, sunflowers and other row crops. Any moisture would be welcome here, where the drought index is extreme. According to the North Dakota Ag Weather Network, Mandan had just 4.69 inches of rain between April 1 and Friday, more than 6 inches less than normal. Of the state's USDA field offices, only Harvey (4.65 inches) had less seasonal rainfall this year than Mandan. The Northern Great Plains Research Center in Mandan reported .72-hundredths in a Friday shower.
The National Weather Service tracks the Palmer Drought Index for the state each year. The index takes into account temperature, precipitation and moisture content in the soil. The current rating of minus 5.22 for the Bismarck area signifies extreme drought and is vastly different from the 1.68 rating (moist) of last year at this time.
"Any time you get a sprinkle of rain it's always a help," Andahl said.
(Reach reporter Tony Spilde at 250-8260 or tony.spilde@;bismarcktribune.com.)
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